ISA China Cup/Hainan Classic Official Forecast
Updated: Monday Morning, November 24 (Local Wanning Time)
BRIEF OVERVIEW:Small but rideable ENE windswell continues today. A trend towards smaller ENE windswell is expected through the middle of the week. A minor increase in ENE windswell is expected by Friday.
MONDAY 24th: Small to fun-size ENE windswell
SWELL/SURF: Inconsistent surf going 2-3’+ ENE windswell. Mainly knee-waist high with occasional stomach/chest high sets around favorable tides.
WIND: NE winds are light to moderate (5-13kt) in the morning, trending ENE through the afternoon.
TUESDAY 25th: Small, fading ENE windswell
SWELL/SURF: Mainly 2-3’/knee-waist high surf with inconsistent sets to around stomach high around favorable tides. WIND: NE winds are light (5-11kt) in the morning, trending ENE through the afternoon.
WEDNESDAY 26th: Small, fading ENE windswell
SWELL/SURF: 1-2’/Knee-thigh high surf with occasional waist high sets around favorable tides.
WIND: NE winds are light (4-9kt) in the morning, trending ENE/E through the afternoon.
THURSDAY 27th: Small ENE windswell, modest increase late
SWELL/SURF: Small 1-2’ (knee-thigh high) with inconsistent waist high sets around favorable tides. A little more size developing late in the day.
WIND: Light and variable winds in the morning trend ESE and pick up to 4-8kts through the afternoon.
FRIDAY 28th: Minor increase in ENE windswell
SWELL/SURF: 2-3’+ ENE windswell. Mainly thigh to waist high surf expected with sets to around stomach high.
WIND: Light NE winds 5-11kts in the morning trend ENE in the afternoon
Recent satellite wind observations have revealed an area of 20-30kt NE/ENE winds over the South China Sea waters just NW and W of the Philippines. However, these winds are expected to diminish over the next 24-36 hours as high pressure weakens N/NE of the area. As a result, small-fun sized ENE windswell will continue for the ISA China Cup on Monday, before the surf gradually eases through Tuesday and Wednesday.
Computer models are showing occasional spurts of 20-25kt NE/ENE winds in our swell window in the South China Sea later Wednesday through early Friday, but the duration of these winds doesn’t look very impressive. As such, the surf we’re expecting only a modest increase in ENE windswell late Thursday through Friday.
Note: Some of the computer models have been showing a low end tropical system moving west of the Philippines and approaching Vietnam Thursday through Saturday. There is no consensus in the various models on this feature, and we thus have very little — if any — confidence on its potential SE swell heading into the weekend. Please stay tuned for updates, but at this point a tropical ESE/SE swell before the end of the event appears unlikely.
Light to moderate (5-13kt) NE winds will blow during the morning hours today before trending more ENE into the afternoon. Similar to slightly lighter winds continue through midweek. At this point, we are expecting light and variable winds Thursday morning to trend ESE into the afternoon. Light NNE/NE trending ENE winds are forecast for Friday.
A slight chance (20%) of showers is expected today and Tuesday. Better chances (30-40%) for showers expected Wednesday and Thursday. The best chances for rain over the next few days will be in the afternoons/early evenings. Note that showers can impact local winds and conditions at times.
Next Update: Wednesday November 26 (Local Wanning Time).
-Mark Willis @MWillisSurfline